Tourism forecasts for Australia 2024 to 2029
TRA produces tourism forecasts for Australia on an annual basis. This year, we produced:
- international forecasts at the national level and for 20 source markets, 4 region groupings and 6 purposes of travel
- domestic forecasts at the national level and for each state and territory, across a range of measures.
The forecasts cover the current year and then a 5-year forward period, 2025 to 2029, on a calendar year basis. Forecast data are available to download at the bottom of this page.
The report presents the forecast outlook, insights regarding the drivers and implications of the projected path forward for the tourism sector, and analysis of the forecast data. It also notes some key upside and downside risks to the forecasts.
Download the report
Visitor economy outlook
The report forecasts a positive outlook for the visitor economy. This is despite various global and domestic uncertainties bringing a downward revision to the forecasts relative to previous expectations.
Over the next 5 years, both international and domestic tourism are forecast to continue to grow. The forecasts suggest:
- international travel to Australia will exceed its pre-pandemic level in 2026
- international spend in Australia will exceed its pre-pandemic level in 2024
- domestic travel will pick up from 2026, following a stable period in 2024 and 2025
- domestic tourism spend, which already exceeds its pre-pandemic level, will continue to rise
Our forecasting method
TRA produces forecasts using a hybrid, evidence-based approach. This method combines data-based analysis and modelling with expert judgement. Insights from the Tourism Forecasting Expert Panel are a critical component of TRA’s forecasting process. The Panel:
- offers long-standing support for TRA’s forecasting work
- is a source of broad-based, respected and constructive intelligence that informs the tourism forecasts
- comprises academics, industry and government specialists, and representatives from the state and territory tourism organisations
- provides input to the forecasting work through survey responses, high-level discussions, and feedback on draft forecast data.
